The Sideshow Annex

Just For the Record

[In late 2002, Dwight Meredith wrote a series of post on his weblog, P.L.A., comparing Democrats and Republicans in those areas in which Republicans claim to excel over Democrats - budgets, size of government, and so on. Because his weblog is on Blogspot and therefore not always reliable for finding archived material, I thought putting those posts on a single page for quick reference might be helpful to people looking that material up. Dwight has been kind enough to supply those posts for me to publish here. - Avedon] In Part I [Wednesday, October 16, 2002], I looked at Budget Deficits: Just for the Record From FY1962 (the first Kennedy budget) through FY2001 (the last Clinton budget) presidents have prepared forty budgets. Control of the White House was evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats with each party preparing and submitting twenty budgets. We decided to take a look at the fiscal performance of the Federal government during that period. The measurement we used was budget deficits and surpluses. We wanted to control for inflation to make the comparisons meaningful. Fortunately, the Government Printing Office publishes such information on the web. We got our data here at table 1-3. All dollars are adjusted for inflation and are expressed as 1996 dollars. Kennedy-Johnson Administrations (FY1962-FY1969) During the eight years of the Kennedy and Johnson administrations (FY1962-1969), the budget was in deficit for seven years. The largest deficit was $110.1 billion in FY1968. The only surplus was $13.4 billion in FY1969. The Kennedy-Johnson budgets added $250.9 billion to the national debt and averaged a yearly budget deficit of $31.36 billion. Nixon-Ford Years (FY1970-FY1977) The Nixon and Ford administrations ran deficits for each of their eight years. The highest deficit was $188 billion in FY1976. The lowest deficit was $11.1 billion in FY1970. The Nixon-Ford budgets added $702.7 billion to the national debt and averaged a yearly deficit of $87.84 billion. Carter Years (FY1978-FY1981) The Carter administration ran a deficit in each of its four years. The highest deficit was $136.6 billion in FY1980 and the lowest was $83.1 billion in FY1979. The Carter budgets added $482.8 billion to the national debt and averaged yearly budget deficits of $120.7 billion. The Reagan Years (FY1982-FY1989) The Reagan administration ran budget deficits in each of its eight years. The lowest deficit was $188.6 billion in FY1989 and the highest was $311 billion in FY1983. The Reagan years added $1.94 trillion to the national debt and averaged annual deficits of $242.23 billion. The Bush (George Herbert Walker) Years (FY1990-FY1993) The Bush administration ran deficits in each of its four years. The highest deficit was $318.5 bilion in FY1992. The lowest was $261.9 billion in FY1990. The Bush years added $1.16 trillion to the national debt and averaged a yearly deficit of $289.68 billion. The Clinton Years (FY1994-FY2001) The Clinton administration ran deficits in each of its first four years and surpluses in each of the last four years. The largest deficit was $213 billion in FY1994 and the largest surplus was $219 billion in FY2000. The Clinton years paid down a net $14.2 billion of national debt and averaged a surplus of $1.78 billion. Summary The twenty years of budgets prepared by Republican presidents increased the national debt by $3.8 trillion. The average yearly deficit under Republican budgets was $190 billion. The twenty years of budgets prepared by Democratic presidents increased the national debt by $719.5 billion. The average yearly deficit under Democratic budgets was $36 billion. In Part II [Thursday, October 24, 2002], I looked at the increase in non-defense Federal Government employees Just for the Record Part II In 1961, under the last Eisenhower budget, there were 782,000 executive branch, non-defense employees in the Federal Government. By the end of 2001 that number had risen to 1,151,000 employees. That is an increase of 369,000 employees or a 47% increase over the 40 year period. We decided to determine in which presidential terms that increase occurred. In order to do so, we looked at the years 1962 through 2001. We assigned credit or blame to an administration for the years for which it submitted a budget. Thus, for our purposes, the Kennedy term runs from 1962-1965. The Johnson term runs from 1966-1969 etc. We got our data here at table 17-1. Kennedy 1962-1965 The last Eisenhower budget had 782,000 non-defense employees. By the end of the Kennedy term that number had risen to 857,000. The Kennedy administration is assigned responsibility for the addition of 75,000 government employees. Johnson 1966-1969 The Johnson years saw the number of government employees rise to 960,000. His administration is assigned responsibility for the addition of 103,000 employees. Nixon (which include the Ford years) 1970-1977 The Nixon years saw non-defense government employees rise from 960,000 in Johnson's last year to 1,173,000 in 1977. Nixon (and Ford) have responsibility for an increase of 213,000 employees. Carter 1978-1981 During the Carter years, the number of non-defense federal employees dropped by 14,000. Reagan 1982-1989 In the Reagan years, the federal workforce increased by 3,000 employees. Bush 1990-1993 Under George Herbert Walker Bush, the number of non-defense government employees increased from 1,162,000 to 1,256,000 for a gain of 94,000 employees. Clinton 1993-2001 During the Clinton years the number of non-defense government employees fell from 1,256,000 to 1,151,000 for a decrease of 105,000 employees. Conclusion Under the 20 years of Republican administrations the number of non-defense government employees rose by 310,000. Under the 20 years of Democratic administrations, the number of non-defense government employees rose by 59,000. Of the 369,000 employees added between 1962 and 2001, 84% were added under Republican administrations and 16% were added under Democratic administrations. In Part III [Sunday, October 27, 2002], I looked at economic growth: Just for the Record Part III Economic Growth In the Just for the Record series of posts we look at various aspects of economic or fiscal performance for the forty-year period from 1962-2001. We chose 1962 for the starting point as it was the first year for which President Kennedy submitted a budget. Thus, for our purposes, the Kennedy term runs from 1962-1965. The Johnson term runs from 1966-1969 etc. During the forty-year period, each party controlled the White House for a total of twenty years. In Part I, we looked at the budget deficit. In Part II we looked at the growth of non-defense employees of the federal government. In this post we look at the growth of GDP. We got our data here. Kennedy 1962-1965 The economy grew each year of the Kennedy "term" by rates of 6.0%, 4.3%, 5.8% and 6.4%, respectively. Those four years average 5.6% GDP growth. Johnson 1966-1969 The economy grew each year of the Johnson "term" by rates of 6.6%, 2.5%, 4.8% and 3.0%, respectively. Those four years average 4.2% GDP growth. Nixon 1970-1977 The economy grew in six of the eight Nixon (and Ford) years and fell in two years. The percentage growth for each of those years is 0.2%, 3.3%, 5.4%, 5.8%, -0.6%, -0.4%, 5.6% and 4.6%, respectively. The average of those eight years is 2.3% GDP growth. Carter 1978-1981 The economy grew in three of the four Carter years. The percent change in GDP for those years is 5.5%. 3.2% -0.2% and 2.5% respectively. The average of those years is 2.8% GDP growth. Reagan 1982-1989 The economy grew in seven of the eight Reagan years. The percent change in GDP for those years is –2.0%, 4.3%, 7.3%, 3.8%, 3.4%, 3.4%, 4.2% and 3.5%, respectively. The average of those years is 3.5% GDP growth. Bush 1990-1993 The economy grew in three of the four Bush years. The percent change in GDP for those years is 1.8%, -0.5%, 3.0% and 2.7%, respectively. The average of those years is 1.8% GDP growth. Clinton 1994-2001 The economy grew in each of the eight Clinton years by the following percentages, 4.0%, 2.7%, 3.6%, 4.4%, 4.2%, 4.9%, 3.8% and 0.3%, respectively. The average for those years is 3.5% GDP growth. Conclusion The economy grew in 19 of the 20 years in which Democratic Presidents submitted a budget and in 16 of the 20 years in which Republican Presidents submitted a budget. For the twenty years for which Republican presidents submitted budgets, the average rate of GDP growth was 2.94%. For the twenty years in which Democratic presidents submitted budgets, the average rate of GDP growth was 3.92%. Kevin Drum of CalPundit has looked at economic growth by party of the President for the period from 1948 through 2001. He used "lag times" of 3, 4 and 5 years in assigning responsibility for economic performance to a President. In each case, economic growth was higher in Democratic administrations than in Republican administrations. In Part IV [Sunday, October 27, 2002], I looked at Unemployment: Just for the Record Part IV Unemployment In the Just for the Record series of posts we look at various aspects of economic or fiscal performance for the forty-year period from 1962-2001. We chose 1962 for the starting point as it was the year in which President Kennedy submitted his first budget. Thus, for our purposes, the Kennedy term runs from 1962-1965. The Johnson term runs from 1966-1969 etc. During the forty-year period, each party controlled the White House for a total of twenty years. In Part I, we looked at the budget deficit. In Part II we looked at the growth of non-defense employees of the federal government. In Part III, we looked at growth in GDP. In this post we look at unemployment. We got our data here. Kennedy 1962-1965 During the Kennedy years the unemployment rate was 5.5%, 5.7%, 5.2% and 4.5%, respectively. Those four years average an unemployment rate of 5.2%. Johnson 1966-1969 During the Johnson years the unemployment rate was 3.8%, 3.8%, 3.6% and 3.5%, respectively. Those four years average an unemployment rate of 3.7%. Nixon 1970-1977 During the Nixon (and Ford) years the unemployment rate was 4.9%, 5.9%, 5.6%, 4.9%, 5.6%, 8.5%, 7.7% and 7.1% respectively. Those eight years average an unemployment rate of 6.3%. Carter 1978-1981 During the Carter years the unemployment rate was 6.1%, 5.8%, 7.1% and 7.6% respectively. Those four years average an unemployment rate of 6.7%. Reagan 1982-1989 During the Reagan years the unemployment rate was 9.7%, 9.6%, 7.5%, 7.2%, 7.0%, 6.2%, 5.5%, and 5.3% respectively. Those eight years average an unemployment rate of 7.3%. Bush 1990-1993 During the Bush years the unemployment rate was 5.6%, 6.8%, 7.5% and 6.9% respectively. Those four years average an unemployment rate of 6.7%. Clinton 1994-2001 During the Clinton years the unemployment rate was 6.1%, 5.6%, 5.4%, 4.9%, 4.5%, 4.2%, 4.0% and 4.8%, respectively. Those eight years average an unemployment rate of 4.9%. Conclusion For the twenty years in which Republican Presidents submitted a budget, the unemployment rate averaged 6.75%. For the twenty years in which Democratic Presidents submitted a budget, the unemployment rate averaged 5.1%. Kevin Drum of CalPundit has looked at unemployment rates by party of the President for the period from 1948 through 2001. He used "lag times" of 3, 4 and 5 years in assigning responsibility for economic performance to a President. In each case, unemployment was lower in Democratic administrations than in Republican administrations. In Part V [Thursday, October 31, 2002], I looked at inflation: Just for the Record Part V Inflation In the Just for the Record series of posts, we look at various aspects of economic or fiscal performance for the forty-year period from 1962-2001. We chose 1962 for the starting point as it was the first budget submitted by President Kennedy. Thus, for our purposes, the Kennedy term runs from 1962-1965. The Johnson term runs from 1966-1969, etc. During the forty-year period, each party controlled the White House for a total of twenty years. In Part I, we looked at the budget deficit. In Part II, we looked at the growth of non-defense employees of the federal government. In Part III, we looked at growth in GDP. In Part IV, we looked at unemployment. In this post, we look at inflation. We got our data here. Kennedy 1962-1965 During the Kennedy years, the inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index (CPI, all urban consumers) was 1.0%, 1.3%, 1.3% and 1.6%, respectively. Those four years average an inflation rate of 1.3%. Johnson 1966-1969 During the Johnson years, the inflation rate was 2.9%, 3.1%, 4.2% and 5.5%, respectively. Those four years average an inflation rate of 3.9%. Nixon 1970-1977 During the Nixon (and Ford) years, the inflation rate was 5.7%, 4.4%, 3.2%, 6.2%, 11.0%, 9.1%, 5.8% and 6.5%, respectively. Those eight years average an inflation rate of 6.5%. Carter 1978-1981 During the Carter years, the inflation rate was 7.6%, 11.3%, 13.5% and 10.3%, respectively. Those four years average an inflation rate of 10.7%. Reagan 1982-1989 During the Reagan years, the inflation rate was 6.2%, 3.2%, 4.3%, 3.6%, 1.9%, 3.6%, 4.1% and 4.8%, respectively. Those eight years average an inflation rate of 4.0%. Bush 1990-1993 During the Bush years, the inflation rate was 5.4%, 4.2%, 3.0% and 3.0%, respectively. Those four years average an inflation rate of 3.9%. Clinton 1994-2001 During the Clinton years, the inflation rate was 2.6%, 2.8%, 3.0%, 2.3%, 1.6%, 3.2%, 3.4% and 2.8%, respectively. Those eight years average an inflation rate of 2.7%. Conclusion For the twenty years in which Republican presidents submitted a budget, the inflation rate averaged 4.96%. For the twenty years in which Democratic presidents submitted a budget, the inflation rate averaged 4.26%. Kevin Drum of CalPundit has looked at inflation rates by party of the President for the period from 1948 through 2001. He used "lag times" of 3, 4 and 5 years in assigning responsibility for economic performance to a President. In each case, inflation rate was lower in Democratic administrations than in Republican administrations. In Part IV [Thursday, November 07, 2002], I looked at the growth in federal spending as well as the growth in non-defense federal spending: Just for the Record Part VI Growth of Federal Spending In the Just for the Record series of posts we look at various aspects of economic or fiscal performance for the forty-year period from 1962-2001. We chose 1962 for the starting point as it was the first budget submitted by President Kennedy. Thus, for our purposes, the Kennedy term runs from 1962-1965. The Johnson term runs from 1966-1969 etc. During the forty-year period, each party controlled the White House for a total of twenty years. In Part I, we looked at the budget deficit. In Part II we looked at the growth of non-defense employees of the federal government. In Part III, we looked at GDP growth. In Part IV, we looked at unemployment. In Part V we looked at inflation. We received an e-mail from Aziz Poonawalla of Unmedia requesting that do a Just for the Record post concerning the growth of Federal non-defense spending. We decided to analyze both the growth of total Federal spending and the growth of Federal non-defense spending. For both, we got our raw data here at Table 3-1. The Cogent Provacateur has noted that the data is also available here. First, we look at the growth of total Federal spending. Total Federal Spending Kennedy 1962-1965 During the Kennedy years the growth rate of total Federal spending was 9.31%, 4.20%, 6.48% and a reduction of 0.25% respectively. Those four years average a growth rate of 4.94%. Johnson 1966-1969 During the Johnson years the growth rate of total Federal spending was 3.79%, 17.05%, 13.13% and 3.09%, respectively. Those four years average a growth rate of 9.27%. Nixon 1970-1977 During the Nixon (and Ford) years the growth rate of total Federal spending was 6.54%, 7.42%, 9.76%, 6.51%, 9.67%, 23.38%, 11.87% and 10.07%, respectively. Those eight years average a growth rate of 11.73%. Carter 1978-1981 During the Carter years, the growth rate of total federal spending was 12.10%, 9.87%, 17.24% and 14.77%. Those four years average a growth rate of 13.50% Reagan 1982-1989 During the Reagan years, the growth rate of total Federal spending was 9.95%, 8.40%, 5.38%, 11.10%, 4.65%, 1.38%, 6.01% and 7.44% respectively. Those eight years average a growth rate of 6.79%. Bush 1990-1993 During the Bush years, the growth rate of total Federal spending was 9.58%, 5.68%, 4.32% and 2.01% respectively. Those four years average a growth rate of 5.40%. Clinton 1994-2001 During the Clinton years, the growth rate of total Federal spending was 3.72%, 3.69%, 2.95%, 2.61%, 3.21%, 2.98%, 5.10% and 4.20% respectively. Those eight years average a growth rate of 3.56% Conclusion For the twenty years of Republican submitted budgets the average percentage growth of total Federal spending was 7.57% For the twenty years of Democratic submitted budgets the average percentage growth of total Federal spending was 6.96%. Next, we look at the growth of non-defense Federal spending. Growth of Non-Defense Federal Spending Kennedy 1962-1965 During the Kennedy years the percentage growth of Federal non-defense spending was 13.20%, 6.31%, 10.11%, and 6.01% respectively. Those four years average a growth rate of 8.91%. Johnson 1966-1969 During the Johnson years the percentage growth of federal non-defense spending was 13.04%, 12.60%, 11.81% and 5.13% respectively. Those four years average a growth rate of 10.65%. Nixon 1970-1977 During the Nixon (and Ford) years the percentage growth of federal non-defense spending was 12.67%, 15.22%, 15.38%, 11.60%, 12.38%, 29.37%, 14.79% and 10.56% respectively. Those eight years average a growth rate of 15.24%. Carter 1978-1981 During the Carter years the percentage growth of federal non-defense spending was 13.55%, 9.44%, 17.87% and 13.96% respectively. Those four years average a growth rate of 13.70%. Reagan 1982-1989 During the Reagan years the percentage growth of federal non-defense spending was and 7.70%, 6.71%, 4.34%, 11.08%, 3.37%, 0.70%, 7.20% and 8.52% respectively. Those eight years average a growth rate of 6.20%. Bush 1990-1993 During the Bush years the percentage growth of federal non-defense spending was 13.54%, 10.19%, 3.07%, and 3.24% respectively. Those four years average a growth rate of 7.51%. Clinton 1994-2001 During the Clinton years the percentage growth of federal non-defense spending was 5.53%, 5.38%, 4.10%, 2.78%, 4.01%, 3.10%, 4.71% and 4.09% respectively. Those eight years average a growth rate of 4.21%. Conclusion For the twenty years of Republican submitted budgets the average growth rate of Federal non-defense spending was 10.08%. For the twenty years of Democratic submitted budgets the average growth rate of Federal non-defense spending was 8.34%. Federal non-defense spending was 8.34%. Finally, when Glenn Reynolds said that "the left" was "utterly wrong" on a number of issues including the economy, I took issue here: Utterly Wrong Professor Reynolds, in this post, writes that, "See, the Left has already shown itself utterly wrong with regard to...the economy... ." We are not sure whom Mr. Reynolds considers to be the "left." If he is talking about Democrats and Republicans, he is "utterly wrong." This is a subject on which we have blogged repeatedly. We looked at the forty years of Kennedy through Clinton. Consider the following: 1) Economic growth averaged 2.94% under Republican Presidents and 3.92% under Democratic Presidents. See this post. 2) Inflation averaged 4.96% under Republicans and 4.26% under Democrats. See this post. 3) Unemployment averaged 6.75% under Republicans and 5.1% under Democrats. See this post. 4) Total federal spending rose at an average rate of 7.57% under Republican Presidents and at an average rate of 6.96% under Democratic Presidents. See this post. 5) Total non-defense federal spending rose at an average rate of 10.08% under Republicans and at an average rate of 8.34% under Democrats. See this post. 6) During the forty-year period studied, the National Debt grew by $3.8 trillion under budgets submitted by Republican Presidents and by $720 billion under budgets submitted by Democratic Presidents. Stated differently, the average annual deficit under Republicans was $190 billion; and, while under Democrats, it was $36 billion. See this post. 7) During the period studied, under Republican Presidents the number of federal government non-defense employees rose by 310,000, while the number of such employees rose by 59,000 under Democrats. See this post. Those facts make it difficult to argue that Republican Presidents have done a better job than Democratic Presidents in managing the economy. Indeed, if someone will suggest a measure of economic performance in which Republican Presidents have done better than Democratic Presidents, we will be happy to look into the issue. Surely there must be some measure of economic performance that favors the Republicans; however, we have been unable to locate it. On 3 April 2005, Dwight supplied an addendum to this series at his new home at Wampum: Just For the Record Update I have been meaning to update the Just for the Record series in which I looked at various measures of economic performance by the party of the President (budget deficits, government employment, economic growth, unemployment, inflation, and job creation). I have not updated because those posts involve a lot of tedious work crunching economic data. Fortunately, I no longer feel the need to update because Michael Kinsley has done the work (I bet he has a staff). Federal spending (aka "big government"): It has gone up an average of about $50 billion a year under presidents of both parties. But that breaks down as $35 billion a year under Democratic presidents and $60 billion under Republicans... Spending goes up faster under Republican presidents than under Democratic ones. And the economy grows faster under Democrats than Republicans. What grows faster under Republicans is debt. Under Republican presidents since 1960, the federal deficit has averaged $131 billion a year. Under Democrats, that figure is $30 billion. In an average Republican year, the deficit has grown by $36 billion. In the average Democratic year it has shrunk by $25 billion. The national debt has gone up more than $200 billion a year under Republican presidents and less than $100 billion a year under Democrats... From 1960 to 2005 the gross domestic product measured in year-2000 dollars rose an average of $165 billion a year under Republican presidents and $212 billon a year under Democrats... The average annual rise in real per capita income -- that's the statistic that puts money in your pocket. Democrats score about 30 percent higher... Democratic presidents have a better record on inflation (averaging 3.13 percent compared with 3.89 percent for Republicans) and on unemployment (5.33 percent versus 6.38 percent). Unemployment went down in the average Democratic year, up in the average Republican one... Kinsley doesn’t mention my favorite. Here is the ranking of the last 13 presidents by job creation: 1) Roosevelt (1933-45): +5.3% 2) Johnson (1963-69): +3.8% 3) Carter (1977-81): +3.1% 4) Truman: (1945-53): +2.5% 5) Kennedy (1961-63): +2.5% 6) Clinton (1993-2001): +2.4% 7) Nixon (1969-75): +2.2% 8) Reagan (1981-89): +2.1% 9) Ford (1975-77): +1.1% 10) Eisenhower (1953-61): +0.9% 11) Bush (1989-93): +0.6% 12) Bush (2001-present): -0.7% 13) Hoover (1929-33): -9.0% Those rankings were through 2002, if I remember correctly. The current President may have have moved up a notch or so since then. That list is suggestive because job growth was higher under all six Democratic Presidents than under any of the seven Republican Presidents. The true genius of the GOP has been its ability to get people not to vote their wallet. Back to Annex Index Back to The Sideshow front page